What follows is my attempt to predict some of the
things which might occur. They are roughly in chronological order. Although
is a touch of humour (to keep me sane), each prediction is genuine and
I consider not unlikely to happen.
These prophecies were written in February 2004 and
have not been added or amended since then except for comments which .
- Oil production begins to fall. Politicians, economists
and oil companies reassure everyone that it is a short-term blip and
blame it on Iraq / OPEC / recession / overproduction / underproduction
/ aliens (delete as relevant).
- A prominent politician or famous scientist alerts the
world to the dangers of peak oil. Articles begin to appear in the
media but it is still mainly ignored. 1970s predictions about "oil
running out in twenty years" are resurrected and still not understood.
- Iraq is broken up into separate countries: the Kurds
in the north, the Sunnis in the centre, and the Shiites in the south.
The USA is "asked
to stay on" in the Kurdish and Shiite regions to maintain law
and order, thereby maintaining a military presence in the Middle East
and remaining (purely by coincidence) near the major oil fields.
- King Fahd of Saudi Arabia dies. The country is torn
by in-fighting which eventually results in a more radical Islamic
state. The US president remembers Iraq and remains out. The UK (purely
by coincidence) agrees with whatever the USA thinks.
- Rise in oil prices bring on recession in North America
and Europe. Blamed on OPEC.
- Food and power shortages hit Asian and African countries
but is largely ignored in the Developed World as "this is what
is expected over there".
- Major dispute between Canada and USA as people of the
former wonder why they should have to freeze so that their natural
gas can keep the people of the latter warm (or cool, as the case may
- Yet another 'discovery' of the enormous resource in
tar sands. Yet another attempt to explain why it isn't the same as
- Oil depletion causes aviation fuel to soar in price.
Distant tourist areas such as Pacific islands, South Africa and Australia/New
notice massive drops in visitors which result in rises in unemployment.
- Oil shortages in China force it to resort to coal to
produce electricity. Acid rain and other pollutions spread across
Korea and Japan.
- Blackouts and brownouts hit the USA and Europe. Blamed on privatisation
/ effects of global warming / recession / aliens.
- Exotic foods in shops begin to rise in price and become less common.
There is a new fad for turning parts of your garden aside for growing
vegetables. Endless TV shows about gardening.
- In the home, there is a rise in energy-saving measures
such as small solar heating panels, lightbulbs, insulation. Endless TV shows about
- Rise of interest in small cars and motorcycles (anything
rather than public transport). Four wheel drive vehicles become even
to own and are given away free with breakfast cereals.
- War breaks out between Vietnam and the Philippines over oil in the
South China Sea.
- Worldwide reductions in crop yields. Costs of food
starve or suffer from malnutrition. Global economies devastated by
need to feed their populations. Revolutions spread across South America
and Africa. Banking system in collapse.
- OPEC restricts supplies of oil to USA, already suffering massive losses
of hydrocarbon supplies.
- Third World War begins.
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